Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 178.041905 209.471995 246.370041 293.291005 351.950051 423.638315 5.190868e+02
2025-11-02 137.983923 175.645894 224.591315 294.248335 393.177424 532.421020 7.504300e+02
2025-11-09 112.724458 151.338551 205.162172 288.190054 417.887007 621.777287 9.869353e+02
2025-11-16 95.736731 133.821346 189.841954 281.942366 437.437507 705.910305 1.247895e+03
2025-11-23 83.173546 120.078765 176.784477 275.066545 452.348498 784.752396 1.533885e+03
2025-11-30 78.708571 117.599964 180.221735 295.229191 518.719843 979.956407 2.168634e+03
2025-12-07 72.085506 110.588923 174.885701 298.524389 553.797079 1124.862483 2.781314e+03
2025-12-14 67.174371 105.634413 172.104574 305.690613 598.403252 1308.845108 3.644337e+03
2025-12-21 61.909565 99.360071 165.960469 304.888040 625.303755 1461.215339 4.547135e+03
2025-12-28 60.176587 99.004635 170.516821 326.780639 711.470352 1814.847278 6.596490e+03
2026-01-04 57.931633 97.410185 172.411530 343.298313 790.043846 2192.546848 9.341088e+03
2026-01-11 55.494304 95.147005 172.614182 356.001073 863.112571 2600.112640 1.305618e+04
2026-01-18 52.581736 91.797517 170.438414 363.476961 927.063821 3032.983962 1.816324e+04
2026-01-25 49.483550 87.762404 166.306059 365.428287 976.122072 3451.467974 2.466897e+04
2026-02-01 45.971568 82.540110 158.932548 357.603905 991.501543 3739.320039 3.123328e+04
2026-02-08 42.818554 77.746045 151.922177 349.444151 1003.548363 4028.248186 3.945779e+04
2026-02-15 39.943782 73.260316 145.073974 340.460304 1010.039261 4300.735861 4.940434e+04
2026-02-22 39.590391 74.014463 150.351140 366.857328 1160.591603 5576.516390 9.145666e+04
2026-03-01 37.905900 71.754339 148.224686 371.183655 1226.848205 6422.139204 1.394540e+05
2026-03-08 36.629908 70.263423 147.773617 380.603722 1320.215913 7620.783413 2.360263e+05
2026-03-15 34.912119 67.641674 144.215041 379.547952 1367.188276 8540.604149 3.640016e+05
2026-03-22 34.731410 68.455123 149.432310 408.416744 1573.710863 11387.552010 9.711622e+05
2026-03-29 34.180165 68.364572 152.307483 430.290848 1761.519175 14650.625662 2.847262e+06